U.S. treasuries and mortgages are slightly lower today as a report in Germany showed that their consumer confidence increased in August. Today’s May S&P/Case Shiller Composite – 20 home price index was expected to be unchanged month over month at .20%. On a year over year basis, the Case Shiller index was expected to be unchanged from Aprirl at +3.8%. Both readings came in slightly higher than expected, +.47% month over month and +4.61% year over year.

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The market is slightly down this morning. Some of the key economic releases this week include today’s new home sales report which is expected increase. On Tuesday, another housing report will be released and the Treasury will begin their weekly auctions. They will be auctioning a total of $104 billion of securities this week. Also, there are a lot more earnings releases slated for the week including the GDP report.

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Yesterday, mortgage bonds fell as better than expected corporate profits quelled fears of further Fed intervention. Today, treasuries and mortgages are lower on positive new overseas. The UK’s GDP grew nearly twice as much as expected and German business confidence rose to a three-year high.

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Yesterday, treasuries and mortgages rallied as the Fed remains prepared to act as needed to aid economic growth. Bernanke used the term, “unusually uncertain” to describe the economic outlook. Traditionally, the FOMC would cut rates but with the Fed Funds rate at or near zero, he outlined how they could lower the amount interest paid on bank reserves, pushing money back into the economy via banks. Mortgages are selling off this morning on better than expected home sales data (-9.9% was expected, -5.1% was actual).

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Yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes showed a cautious Fed with a downward revision to 2010 growth. Most investors had already speculated that the Fed would remain accomodative over concerns that the economic recovery is slowing. Initial claims continue to show no real signs of improvement. The continuing claims fell, but it is widely believed that the decline in the number of people receiving benefits is due more to people running out of benefits than a surge in hiring.

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The morning, retail sales came in down .5% versus the expectations of .3% which is pushing the bond market up slightly from yesterday’s close. The MBA mortgage applications report showed that demand for loans to purchase US homes sunk to a 13-year low last week. In the afternoon, the market will be focusing on the minutes from the last FOMC meeting where many expect to find that Fed officials have lowered their economic growth outlook. Also, the Treasury is scheduled to auction $13 billion in 30-year bonds.

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Yesterday, the Treasury began their weekly auction activity with the sale of $35 billion 3-year notes. This was the first of three auctions for the week. The auction did not have much impact on Treasuries or mortgage bonds even though demand was a bit weaker than expected. There’s not much in the way of the impactful economic releases today. The Treasury will continue this week’s activity with the auction of $21 billion in 10-year notes today.

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There is no economic news slated for today, however, it will be an extremely busy week of releases. Some of the key releases include the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, Thursday’s Senate hearing include the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, Thursday’s Senate hearing on Obama’s Federal Reserve Board nominees, June’s Consumer Price index, Producer Price Index, Philly Fed business index, and this week’s Treasury auctions.

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Treasuries are down again this morning following the unemployment report which showed that intial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week. The government is also planning on announcing  the size of their note and bond auctions for next week.

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The markets will be keeping an eye on global economic data and whether or not the slide in equities will continue their worst week in over 2 months last week. The economic calendar is extremely light this week. Today’s ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to be 55 this morning, remaining above the expansion/contraction level of 50 again.

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